As we sit in week 7 of the NFL season, there are currently three winless teams left in the league; the Miami Dolphins (0-5), the Indianapolis Colts (0-6), and the St. Louis Rams (0-5). While there is still a whole bunch of football to be played and teams with wins still with the possibility of nabbing the first pick in the 2012 draft (what’s up Washington, Seattle, and Arizona?), today we’ll take a look at the three winless teams left in the NFL and evaluate their likelihood of not only getting the first pick, but also of whether or not they would draft star quarterback Andrew Luck out of Stanford.
Miami Dolphins (0-5, 3 winnable games remaining): There are probably thousands of Dolphins fans that are already licking there lips at the possibility of landing Andrew Luck in the draft (in fact, they even have a "Suck for Luck" campaign circulating Miami). Since Dan Marino retired in 1999, the Dolphins have not had a franchise quarterback lead their team. Instead, guys like Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Jay Fiedler, Gus Ferotte, and now Matt Moore have been behind center for Miami. Luck provides the “face of the franchise” appeal that the Dolphins have lacked in the past 10+ years. Looking at the remainder of the Dolphins schedule, they have a very good chance to to be on the clock at #1 in April. Of the remaining 11 games in the season, I view only three of them as games that the Dolphins can win; week 7 against Denver, week 9 at Kansas City, and week 10 at home against Washington. The best shot they may have at a victory is actually this week against Denver. If the Dolphins had any strength on the team at all, its on the defense. Cameron Wake is an absolute freak as a pass rusher, and Vontae Davis is a solid corner. Denver comes in with Tim Tebow as the starter, a much more attractive matchup than Kyle Orton. The Broncos are horrible, if the Dolphins have any shot at screwing themselves out of Luck and the number one pick, its this week.
Chances of landing the first pick: Very High
Chances they draft Luck: Undoubtedly
St. Louis Rams (0-5, 4 winnable games remaining): The Rams may have the easiest schedule for the rest of the season among the three winless teams. It doesn’t hurt that they play in the NFC West, and with four meetings with Seattle and Arizona remaining, the Rams will have to be really, really bad to remain winless. However, if St. Louis keeps losing and gets the #1 pick, they will have a very interesting scenario on their hands. Two seasons ago, St. Louis drafted Sam Bradford out of Oklahoma with the first overall pick. Now, according to draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. of ESPN, Luck is the highest rated player on his big board since John Elway all the way back in the 80s. Bradford was good coming out of Oklahoma, but he doesn’t have the potential that Luck has. Bradford played well last year and showed that he can play at this level, but if the Rams do end up with the first overall pick, they’ll go one of two routes. The first is shopping around that first pick. If the Saints were willing to part with an entire draft class just to get Ricky Williams, imagine what qb-hungry teams would do for the chance to have Andrew Luck as there starting quarterback. If the Rams don’t get any offers that attract them for that number one pick, then they’ll have to put Bradford out there for a trade. Bradford won’t yield as much as the number one pick, but at this stage in his career and with his high ceiling as a quarterback, he’ll get you at least two number one picks. I’m rooting for this scenario to happen, seeing a team that already has a young, good quarterback sitting in position to take Andrew Luck will make draft day all the more intriguing.
Chances of landing the first pick: High
Chances they draft Luck: Likely
Indianapolis Colts (0-6, 2 winnable games remaining): This has been the story everyone has been talking about since Peyton Manning went down for the season. I think its pretty clear to all that the Curtis Painter era won’t last past this season. But, what would the Colts do with the number one pick? More on that later, first it has to be determined if the Colts will even be in position to draft at the number one overall spot. Left on the schedule, I see only two games that Painter and the Colts could potentially win. They do play the Panthers in week 12, but I could see Cam Newton lighting that defense up. The only chance the Colts have to win this season are in their two meetings with division rival Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts play the Jags in week 10 and then again in week 17. With upcoming games against Houston, New England, and Baltimore, the Colts could enter week 17 at 0-15, at the cusp of the number one pick. The Jaguars are easily the weakest team on their schedule, but Blaine Gabbert has come along nicely and they were able to hold the Steelers to zero second half points last week. Assuming that the Colts finish with the worst record in the league, it would make for a more unbelievable position than that of the Rams potential pickle. You have to presume that Peyton Manning, if fully healthy next year, will be able to compete and be the starter for the franchise he made relevant for another three to four years. So, do the Colts draft Luck and sit him on the bench for four years to learn under an all-time great? Or do they trade that pick for several number one’s and a couple 2011 picks. With those picks, the Colts could rebuild a foundation around Manning and give him more weapons to use. A wild-card scenario is that of the Colts shopping Manning around to the rest of the league. Manning will be 36 the next time he plays football (2012), and his neck injury is a huge red flag. What would it be like for a franchise to shop around their greatest player ever in favor for an unproven, albeit highly gifted, college quarterback? No one really knows what Jim Irsay and the Colts will be thinking in April, but it will sure be something to watch.
Chances of landing the first pick: Very High
Chances they draft Luck: High (but who really knows)
