NFL: Who Will be Elite in 2016?

Let’s turn back the clock for just a second to 2006. Vince Young had just won Rookie of the Year quarterbacking the Tennessee Titans. Chad Pennington was the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers hadn’t even thought of the word “retirement” yet. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady were all entering the prime of their careers. In 2011, Vince Young is a backup on the Eagles, Pennington and Favre are out of football and the above trio of quarterbacks are entering their twilight years (while still playing lights out in the cases of Brady and Brees). Five years from now, what will the NFL look like? Who will dominate their positions, and who will be lost in the wind? We take a look, breaking down which quarterback, running back, wide receiver, cornerback, linebacker, and head coach will be at the top of their positions in half a decade. 

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (32 years old in 2016)

In five years, Rodgers will be the two years younger than Tom Brady is now. Rodgers, in my opinion, is already at the top of his position, and logic says he still will be in five years. It’s insanely scary to think that Rodgers will be still in the prime of his career five years down the road, being that he already is showing signs of being an all-time great, maybe even better than Favre was. It’s only going to get better from here to watch. 

Others to Watch: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers

Running Back: Adrian Peterson (31 years old in 2016)

This was a bit of a tough one. In the NFL, running back’s have a low shelf life. I thought of going to a younger player like LeSean McCoy, DaMarco Murray, or Chris Johnson here. However, Johnson is showing signs of already declining, and McCoy and Murray are too unproven for me to say they’ll be elite in five years. Peterson will be 31 at the start of the 2016 season, which is usually the beginning of the end for running backs. The way Peterson runs, it could come for him much earlier. However, his skills are far and above superior to almost every running back in the league. I expect him to keep it up and be the best in the league five years from now. 

Others to Watch: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson (31 years old in 2016)

Believe it or not, I was very close to going with Dez Bryant here. I went with Johnson, however. Johnson is already among the top-5 wide receivers in the league, and he gets to play the next five years with a presumably healthy Matt Stafford on a good young Detroit Lions team. Johnson should be able to get better and better each year, and while Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson will still be among the best, I think Johnson will be putting up crazy numbers if Stafford can stay healthy enough to throw him the ball. 

Others to Watch: Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson

Cornerback: Darrelle Revis (31 years old in 2016)

I know, I know, I picked another player who is already the best at his position. Revis will be 31 come 2016, and I see no signs of him slowing down. Looking at other corners around the league now, Charles Woodson (35) and Champ Bailey (33) are still playing at a high level. In five years, we could be watching Revis Island continue to bring in new tourists, on his way to a potential Hall of Fame career. 

Others to Watch: Nnamdi Asomougha, Devin McCourty, Brandon Flowers

Linebacker: Von Miller (27 years old in 2016)

Linebacker was the one of the easiest positions for me to pick. Right now, as a rookie, Miller is putting together a stellar campaign. I know that guys like Patrick Willis, Clay Matthews, and David Harris will still be relatively young in five years. However, Miller will still be much younger then those three. Miller is currently the star on a good Denver defense, and I suspect him to be among the top defensive players in five seasons. 

Others to Watch: Clay Matthews, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman, Mario Williams

Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh 

I love the job that Harbaugh has done with the 49ers, taking a team that was supposed to be among the league’s worst this year and turning them into a playoff team after a lockout-shortened summer is beyond impressive. In five years, Harbaugh could be considered among the league’s best head coaches. Packers coach Mike McCarthy has a good shot as well, being able to coach a team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. I went with Harbaugh here instead, I love his intensity and the way players respond to him. They respect him, and that is vital in the NFL. 

Others to Watch: Mike McCarthy, Rex Ryan, Jason Garrett, Sean Payton

While those guys may be at the top of their positions in five years, there are some other players that could be interesting to think about in five years. Will Tom Brady, who will be 39 years old, and coach Bill Belichick still be in football? What about Stanford product Andrew Luck, will he be the heir apparent to Peyton Manning in Indianapolis? Will Rex Ryan finally win a super bowl? Or will Aaron Rodgers have reeled off another two or three in the process? Only time will tell. 

NFL: "Elite" Quarterbacks

“Elite” is a term that is thrown around way too often in the NFL. This past week John Clayton of ESPN called Joe Flacco an elite quarterback. Last season analysts were already calling Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman elite. This is the preverbal “rock bottom” of throwing around the word elite to any NFL quarterback that has a good season. Both Freeman and Flacco had great seasons last year, with Freeman throwing for 25 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Flacco threw for 25 and 10 while leading the Ravens to the playoffs before losing in the divisional round. Through his career, Flacco has a 4-3 playoff record with a 60.7 completion percentage and 86.4 quarterback rating. Freeman, on the other hand, has never made it to the playoffs and boasts a 59.5 completion percentage and a 79.8 quarterback rating. 

To call these two elite at this stage in their careers is just wrong. Focusing on Flacco, he has without a doubt been the strongest quarterback the Ravens have had in their current history of having a dominant defense. Flacco does have a decent playoff record for a fourth year quarterback, but much of that can be attributed to the Ravens all-world defense. New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is said to be the weakest link on the Jets team. The Jets have a similar team structure to the Ravens; a team with a strong defense and emphasis on the running game. Through two and a half seasons, Sanchez has a 4-2 playoff record with a 72.9 quarterback rating and 54.7 completion percentage. Sanchez has thrown for less touchdowns and more interceptions than Flacco has, but the stats are not all that different. Factor in a difference 6% in completions and a 14 point difference in quarterback rating, the two players aren’t far off from each other. 

Using the same comparison as Flacco, Freeman has similar stats to Sanchez as well. Freeman and Sanchez both entered the league in 2009. With fewer games played, Freeman has thrown for three less interceptions and one more touchdown. Both players have 7,000 yards passing to their credit and a 6 yard average per attempt pass. Freeman has never led the Bucs to the playoffs, the closest being last season when they went 10-6 and missed the wild card by one game. 

The point of this is, if analysts are going to call guys like Flacco and Freeman elite, then using the same stats (playoffs, career qb rating, career passing stats), average quarterbacks like Sanchez and even Matt Cassel should be in the conversation as well. Which brings me to my point, none of those four players are elite. The purpose of the Sanchez comparisons were not to push that he is an elite quarterback. At this stage in his career, Sanchez is an average quarterback whose strongest skill is being a game manager. Looking at the stats and playoff records, guys like Freeman and Flacco cannot be called elite if they have similar resumes to game managers and decent quarterbacks like Sanchez and Cassel. 

In my eyes, being an “elite” quarterback puts you in the pantheon of NFL starters. They are the guys who when you see their team on the schedule, you cringe and think that they will beat you. Nobody looks at a game against the Ravens or Bucs and says, “Flacco/Freeman is going to beat us in that game”. The elite title should be reserved for quarterbacks who are the best players on their team, players who have been deep into the playoffs and remained the last man standing. Players who throughout their career have put up big numbers and big win totals. Not guys like Flacco, who one week could throw for 300+ yards and a few scores then the next week throw for 8 yards in an entire half (Jacksonville game). Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger. Those guys have won games single handidly. They take their teams to the playoffs year in and year out and have been the last man standing in February. Phillip Rivers could become elite. Eli Manning is right there, too. But right now, as we sit in week 9 of the 2011 season, the “elite” quarterback list starts and ends with those five names. Maybe in two, three, four years Flacco and Freeman could leap into the conversation, but to call them elite at this stage and with their current career stats is defacing the title all together. 

NFL: 2011 Midseason Awards

The 2011 NFL season is flying by right before our eyes. It seems like just yesterday we were in the midst of the lockout, wondering if we would even be able to watch football this year in the pros. But enough of the sentimental thoughts, its time to give out The Jockstrap’s midseason awards. The winners could easily change by week 17, but this is a list of players who have preformed well enough in the first eight weeks of the season to capture the coveted AP awards. 

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers (2,372 yards; 20 tds; 3 ints; 71.5 cmp%)

This one is a bit of a no brainer. Rodgers has been the most dominant player in the league thus far while leading the defending champs to a 7-0 record. He’s on pace to challenge Dan Marino’s passing yard record and to break Drew Brees’ record for completion percentage in a single season. 

Still in the Hunt: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson

Offensive Player of the Year: Calvin Johnson (679 yards; 10 tds; 41 rec)

It’s rare for the MVP to win the OPTY award in the same season, so I’m giving this award to the Lions all-world wideout Calvin Johnson. The play of Matt Stafford has been important to the Lions success this year, but how many times have we seen Johnson take over the game. The comeback victory over the Cowboys was all because of Johnson, who can win any jump-ball in the endzone no matter whose guarding him. 

Still in the Hunt: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Fred Jackson

Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis (4 ints; 20 tackles; 10 catches allowed)

In my mind, Revis should have won the award in ’09 when he had one of the best seasons for a corner in recent memory. Instead, the award went to Charles Woodson, who had the “sexy stat” with 9 interceptions. This season, the term “Revis Island” has never been more relevant. He has allowed only 10 catches while shutting down receivers like Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, and Wes Welker. Oh yeah, quarterbacks have a QB rating of 2.9 when passing against Revis. #Dominance. 

Still in the Hunt: DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, Charles Woodson, Ndamukong Suh

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (2,369 yards rushing/passing; 15 tds r/p)

Another no brainer. Cam has taken the league by storm, easily the most exciting player to watch in the league right now. The only way he doesn’t win the award is if AJ Green and the Bengals continue to play well and make the playoffs. 

Still in the Hunt: AJ Green, Andy Dalton

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller (26 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles)

This may be the most intriguing award race of them all. Miller has been a force for the Denver defense, and lone bright spot of the team. Along with Miller, Arizona’s stud cornerback/return man Patrick Peterson and San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith are both in the race. Smith could get the nod at the end of the season, seeing as San Francisco is the only team of the three that will likely make the playoffs. 

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh (6-1 record)

I got Harbaugh here by a nose to Jim Schwartz of the Lions. What Harbaugh has done, taking a team that was expected by many (including me) to be the worst team in the league and making them a frontrunner to get a bye in the playoffs, is extraordinary. Harbaugh has taken Alex Smith and actually turned him into an NFL quality quarterback. More impressive has been his ability to get the respect of the players that he didn’t even get to meet until early August. A rookie head coach performing like this after a long lockout? Unheard of. 

Still in the Hunt: Jim Schwartz, Bill Belicheck, Mike Tomlin, Marvin Lewis

NFL: Aaron Rodgers Enters the Pantheon

This wasn’t the career that Aaron Rodgers is supposed to have. Nobody had high expectations of Rodgers, but that is the story of his life. A kid who didn’t get a single Division I scholarship after high school isn’t supposed to ever play a down in college, but Rodgers did just that after going to junior college before quarterbacking the Cal Bears in 2003 and 2004. Rodgers did fine at Cal, even considered to be a top pick in the 2005 NFL Draft. But Rodgers wasn’t an early pick, instead he sat in the green room at Radio City Hall and watched as QB-needy teams like Cleveland, Chicago, Arizona, and Kansas City pass him up. Rodgers waited and waited, only to be drafted 24th overall by the Packers, a team that at the time was being led by future hall-of-famer and all american boy Brett Favre. Rodgers rode the pine for three seasons as he watched Favre break the all-time touchdown record and take the Packers to consecutive playoff births. When Favre finally “retired”, it was Rodgers turn. He struggled, as any third year, first time starter would. The Packers went 6-10 that year in 2009, to many of us Rodgers just wasn’t supposed to ever do anything special. Then last year, Rodgers willed the Packers to the playoffs and on into the Super Bowl after barely winning the wild card. Before we knew it, Rodgers had transformed into more than an over-looked quarterback. He was a Super Bowl MVP and star in the league. Now, seven weeks into the 2011 season, Rodgers has become the best quarterback in football. 

For years the pantheon of starting NFL quarterbacks was a two man club. it was always Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, in whatever order was your preference. Yeah, Drew Brees was always a great quarterback but many never had him in the same class as the other two. Last year Rodgers rocketed into the top-10 discussion, but nobody was thinking that he could punch a ticket into the pantheon. Now, Rodgers sits on the throne alone. Manning, although injured and surely out for the year, is still one of the leagues best. Brady has proven time and time again that he won’t lose more than 2-3 games a year, and don’t even think about giving him the ball in the last two minutes. With Rodgers its different. When Rodgers is on the field, you honestly get the feel that he can throw a touchdown or break a big play at any moment. Last week in Minnesota, Rodgers made a play that I had never seen before. Under heavy pressure from Jared Allen, Rodgers scrambled right, then quickly turned around and scrambled left. He sprinted towards the sidelines, his eyes down field the entire time. As Rodgers made his way to the edge of the field, Rodgers, while still on the move, ever so gently leaped off the ground and rocketed a perfectly accurate pass 20 yards downfield into the arms of James Jones. It was absolutely incredible. For Rodgers, it was routine. 

Rodgers is like the love child of all-time great quarterbacks. The mobility of John Elway. The arm of Dan Marino. Accuracy of Manning, and the ice water veins of Brady. He can make the most difficult play seem like a man playing ball against teenagers. This season, Rodgers has thrown just three interceptions to 20 touchdowns. He’s completed 71.5% of his throws, and his lowest QB rating of the season was 111.4 against the Bears. Rodgers’ lowest QB rating his higher than Matt Ryan’s best rating of the season. The only comparable season to Rodgers’ this year is that of Brady in 2007. Brady threw 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions while leading the Patriots to an 18-1 season. Rodgers may not throw for 50 scores this season, but his passing yards, interceptions, and completion percentage all could be better than Brady’s in 2007. 

The scariest thing about Rodgers is that he’s only 27 and has had no history of injury problems. The man is only just entering the prime of his career, and this year could just be a sign of whats yet to come. I’ve been watching football for 15+ years, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a quarterback be able to do the things that Rodgers can do. He can come through in the clutch just like Brady. He can fix broken plays with his feet in the same tenacity that Mike Vick does for the Eagles. Rodgers, to put it simply, is the best in the business, and it is only going to get better from here.