NFL: AFC Contender/Pretender

AFC: Contender/Pretender 

As we get to the last seven weeks of games, we’ve seen teams in the AFC look elite one week to horrible the next. Look at the Ravens, who after beating division rival Pittsburgh last Sunday lost to the Seahawks yesterday. Pittsburgh has gone from good to bad to great to good. The Jets lost three games in a row at the beginning of the season. Buffalo and Cincinnati came out of the gate looking like actual football teams. The Patriots look mortal. With such a logjam in the conference, it’s time to clear up the AFC playoff picture...its time to decide whose a contender, and whose a pretender. 

Baltimore Ravens (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Baltimore is one of the most confusing teams I’ve ever watched. In some games, such as against the Jets and Steelers, they look like the best team in the league. Then, when they play teams like Arizona and Seattle, they barely win or lose. That’s a good sign for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but the Ravens have too good of a defense to falter late in the year. I don’t know if it will be out of the division or wild card, but Baltimore should be a team that plays deep into the winter. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Buffalo Bills (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): It may be too soon, but you have to wonder if the Bills are re-thinking that $50 million extension they handed Ryan Fitzpatrick earlier this year. In the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick and the Bills have been held to poor performances against the Jets and Cowboys. Fitzpatrick completes a high percentage of his passes, but his arm is weak and he’s starting to make poor decisions with his throws. The Bills still have two games against the Patriots and Jets, along wit match ups with scrappy teams like Denver, San Diego, and Miami. They could be right back in the thick of things with victories over New England and New York, but I get the feeling that the slipper is coming off of this cinderella team. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Yesterday, for the first time all season, Andy Dalton looked like a rookie quarterback. Dalton threw two interceptions and struggled against the Pittsburgh defense. The Bengals got off to a hot start with he benefit of playing poor teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Over the next seven weeks, Dalton and the Bengals will have to play the Ravens (twice), the Steelers, and the Texans before meeting up with St. Louis and Arizona. I can see the Bengals getting to 9 wins, but it takes 10 to get into the playoffs from the AFC in this day and age. If they can steal a game from Pittsburgh or Baltimore, they might sneak in. I don’t see it. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Denver Broncos (4-5; tied for 2nd in AFC West): I’m going to get this out of the way right now, the Broncos are not as good as Cincinnati or Buffalo, but they might have a better chance at making the playoffs. Currently, Denver has the tie-breaker over Oakland and Kansas City. To me, it looks like no one really wants to win the division. The Chargers are playing like they never win, Oakland is as bipolar as any team, and Kansas City stinks. Denver, however, is a team with a great defense and a “quarterback” who can run it like no other. As history tells us, a strong defense and a good running game leads to victories. Somehow, someway, the Broncos keep winning. I don’t think they’re good, but they play in a division that can help them out. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Houston Texans (7-3; 1st place in the AFC South): It looks as though the Texans have already locked up the South, currently standing 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans. However, the Texans still have to play games against Atlanta and the Titans, so a late season collapse is not out of the question. For all the talk focused on the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers being the AFC elite, the texans have quietly put together a strong season. Should they stay the course and make the playoffs, they’ll be a scary team to face. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

New England Patriots (6-3; 1st place in the AFC East): For as vulnerable as the Patriots have looked this season, they seemed to have turned it around after defeating the Jets last night. Now in soul possession of first place in the East, don’t look for New England to lose any ground in the coming weeks. When all is said and done, the Patriots will more than likely enter the playoffs with a first round bye and a top seed out of the AFC.

Verdict: CONTENDER

New York Jets (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): The Jets had a chance to take first place in the East last night and squandered it. Corner man Donald Strickland got exposed by Rob Gronkowski all night. Now the Jets will have to compete with Buffalo, Cincinnati, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore for a wild card seed. They hold a tie breaker over Buffalo, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, and Bills in the next seven weeks. Knowledge says they can afford to lose two more games this season if they want to make the playoffs, but with that schedule it will be no easy feat. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Oakland Raiders (5-4; 1st place in the AFC West): I thought for sure that the Raiders would have fallen out of contention by now, considering Darren McFadden being injury-riddled and Carson Palmer being...well...Carson Palmer. However, the Raiders looked excellent Thursday night against the Chargers, with Palmer looking like he’s developing quite the chemistry with his receivers. With the Raiders in the division drivers seat, all they will have to do is hold off the Fighting Tebows of Denver to make the playoffs. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3; 1st place in the AFC North): If you were going to tell me that after 10 weeks the Steelers would have lost to Houston and the Ravens (twice) and still be in first place in the division, I would have called you crazy. For as weird as the Ravens have been this year, the Steelers have been weirder. Just like the Ravens, Pittsburgh can look dominant one week and porous the next. I think they have the experience and ability to make it into the playoffs out of the crowded North, but there is no telling who will win the division. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Tennessee Titans (5-4; 2nd place in the AFC South): Oh, what could have been for the Titans this year. With Peyton Manning out and the Colts playing awfully, the Titans had a legit shot to steal the division. Then, Kenny Britt was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Chris Johnson only just got his first 100-yard rushing day (and first touchdown) of the season yesterday. The Titans are only 2.5 games back of Houston, but it may be a little too much too late for Tennessee. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

PREDICTIONS:

AFC East- New England Patriots (1 seed)

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers (3 seed)

AFC South- Houston Texans (2 seed)

AFC West- Oakland Raiders (4 seed)

Wild Card- Baltimore Ravens (5 seed)

Wild Card- New York Jets (6 seed)

Wild Card Round- Pittsburgh over New York; Baltimore over Oakland

Divisional Round- Baltimore over New England; Pittsburgh over Houston

Championship Round- Pittsburgh over Baltimore 

NFL: Week Four Power Rankings

1. Green Bay Packers (4-0)- Aaron Rodgers notched up 70 points in my fantasy league this week after a 408 yard passing, six total touchdown day (four in the air, two on the ground). Rodgers has had his best season to date so far, and if there are people who don’t put him in the Brady-Manning-Brees echelon then I would love to meet them. 

Last Week- #1

2. New England Patriots (3-1)- Wes Welker is having the season of all seasons for the Patriots this season. Through the first-quarter of the year, Welker has 40 receptions for 616 yards and five scores. Until teams can learn how to stop Welker from going over the middle or on short slants, the Patriots will continue to win. They head home for a divisional game agains the bipolar New York Jets, but if history tells us one thing its that anything can happen when these two teams meet. 

Last Week- #2

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)- The score doesn’t reflect it, but the Ravens offense was nowhere to be found in the second half of Sunday night’s 34-17 win over the Jets. Quarterback Joe Flacco went the entire third quarter without completing a pass, but the Baltimore defense forced four Jets turnover, three of which went for touchdowns. The Ravens are showing that they are for real this season, and with the Steelers playing without an offensive line, it looks as though Baltimore is already close to punching their playoff ticket. 

Last Week- #3

4. New Orleans Saints (3-1)- Drew Brees didn’t light up the Jacksonville Jaguars defense like so many thought he would, but the Saints still managed to in 23-10. Tight end Jimmy Graham continued his superb season with a 10 reception, 132 yard and one touchdown day. Next week the Saints head to Carolina for a (surprisingly) difficult divisional game against Cam Newton and the Panthers. 

Last Week- #4

5. Detroit Lions (4-0)- Its time to give the Lions the respect they deserve. So far this season their the league’s comeback kids. Down by 24 points in the third quarter in Dallas, the Detroit defense got them right back into the game, taking two Tony Romo interceptions to the house before Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson connected on two second half touchdowns, the latter a game winning score that put the Lions ahead for good. So far this season Johnson has had four straight two touchdown games, a Lions first. Detroit will go as far as Stafford can take them, but its time to give them the respect they deserve; the Lions have come to play. 

Last Week- #7

6. San Diego Chargers (3-1)- This is where the power rankings list starts to get a little hazy. There are a boatload of teams that are 3-1 so far, but some of them I don’t believe are better than some of the leagues 2-2 teams. This isn’t the case for the Chargers, though. San Diego has quietly put together a strong first month, their only loss coming at the hands of the Patriots. I don’t believe the Chargers are among the elite in the AFC this year, but they are going to be a team no one will want to face in late December. 

Last Week- Not Ranked

7. Chicago Bears (2-2)- The Bears move up three spots from last week to this week, even though they only beat the Panthers by 5. The Bears will continue to be competitive, but if they can’t fix the offensive line then they will not be able to keep up with the Packers and Lions in the AFC North. And also, why do teams still kick the ball to Devin Hester?

Last Week- #10

8. New York Giants (3-1)- The Giants won last weekend in Arizona on a controversial call where wideout Victor Cruz fell to the ground on a catch and was not touched, but the whistle was blown and Cruz let the ball go. According to the NFL rulebook, a player is considered down if he makes himself known to be down, as if to say he slides or falls to the ground on his own. I’m not sold on the Giants, I think the defense as no depth and the offense is not explosive enough to keep winning. However, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs continue to bowl over people, and the Giants continue to win. 

Last Week- Not Ranked

9. Houston Texans (3-1)- The Texans seem to like to jump in and out of the top 10. The defense played extremely well against Pittsburgh, pressuring Big Ben and taking him out at the knees, the only way to tackle a 6 foot 5 inch quarterback. The team will be hurt by not having Andre Johnson (hamstring) for the next game or so, but it seems as if Arian Foster is fully healed (30 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown). 

Last Week- Not Ranked

10. New York Jets (2-2)- I’m not ready to give up on the Jets just yet. The offensive line was absolutely terrible in Baltimore Sunday night. I’m not giving Mark Sanchez a free pass for the loss (the Jets lost by 17, while Sanchez was responsible for giving up 21 points), but it must be pretty hard to make plays when the offensive line gives you 2 seconds of free time in the pocket before it collapses on you. The Jets will look to get All-Pro center Nick Mangold back for this weeks game against New England, but a loss to the Patriots will knock the Jets out of the top 10, and maybe even the divisional race. 

Last Week- #5

Honorable Mentions- Buffalo Bills (3-1, lost to the Bengals 23-20); Washington Redskins (3-1, beat the Rams 17-10); Tennessee Titans (3-1, beat the Browns 31-13); Philadelphia Eagles (2-2, lost to the 49ers 24-23)

A Viking, a Titan, a Panther, and Jaguar: Oh My! Which Rookie Quarterback Will Have the Greatest Impact in 2011?

This past April, four different teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round; the Jaguars, Panthers, Titans, and Vikings. The Panthers were the first team to make such a move, picking Auburn product Cam Newton with the number one overall selection. The Titans followed suit, selecting Jake Locker out of Washington with the 8^th overall pick. Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) and Christian Ponder (Florida State) rounded out the first round quarterbacks, going 10^th and 12^th, respectively. All four quarterbacks are currently viewed as future starters for their respected teams, but unlike years past (Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, and Matthew Stafford) none are guaranteed starting jobs. So, the question is, which of the four rookies are poised to make the greatest impact this season?

The clear cut most athletic of the group is Cam Newton. Newton posses a combination of speed, size, and power that the NFL has never seen at the quarterback position. During his lone season at Auburn, Cam dazzled fans with a rocket arm combined with the running style of a tailback (with size of a linebacker). Standing at 6 foot 5 and 248 pounds, Newton is a physical specimen. However, Newton is not without critics. Scouts believe that Newton may not have the pocket presence or mental makeup that are critical to producing a quality NFL quarterback. Also, anyone who watched the “Gruden QB Camp” on ESPN knows that Newton does not seem to be among the most intellectually gifted. Going into this season, Newton has the best chance at starting right out of the gate as he battles with second year quarterback Jimmy Clausen for the QB1 position. Newton looked decent in his three pre-season appearances, but Clausen does have the experience factor going for him. Another knock against Newton’s chances of having the greatest impact this season is the team he plays with. The Carolina Panthers were awarded the #1 draft pick last season for a reason, they were awful. The offense, though not lacking in star power with DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith, was abysmal. Other than Smith, the Panthers have no viable options at wide receiver. Newton, or whoever is the week 1 starter, will benefit from the addition of veteran tight end Greg Olsen, however.

Entering the 2010 NFL Draft, many scouts believed that Washington University’s Jake Locker had a chance to be the first overall selection (that honor went to St. Louis Rams QB Sam Bradford). However, Locker chose to stay at school for his senior year and probably lost millions in the process. Locker struggled this past season as he saw his accuracy and decision making take a free fall. However, the Tennessee Titans still thought highly enough of Locker as they made him the 8^th overall selection in the ’11 draft. Locker is gifted with speed and strength to go along with one of the strongest arms in football. Entering the season, Locker is #2 on the depth chart behind veteran free agent addition Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is an established starter in the league, but his age and injury history are a reason to think that Locker might get to see valuable playing time this season. If Chris Johnson ends his holdout and does in fact play for the Titans this season, accompanied with Hasselbeck showing his age, Locker could have an opportunity to do great things for the Titans this year.

The third quarterback selected in the first round of this years draft is the one that many scouts believe to be the most “NFL ready”; Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert slipped in the draft a tad to the Jaguars at the 10^th spot, partly because of the only QB needy teams in the top 9 going elsewhere (Buffalo elected to go with Von Miller, and the Titans chose Locker over Gabbert). In watching the preseason games this summer, Gabbert shows great knowledge for the game and tremendous footwork in the pocket. However, the one thing standing in his way from running the Jacksonville offense is veteran David Garrard. Garrard has spent the last few seasons as the captain and quarterback to the Jaguars, but his age is evident in his play. Although the Jaguars have a good core with running back Maurice Jones-Drew, they have never been able to make that next step in the AFC South. With division rivals Houston and Indianapolis both primed and reloaded, the fans in Jacksonville could be in for a long, losing season. If this is the case, look for Gabbert to emerge as the starter by midseason, taking the remainder of the games to showcase his skills and give a glimpse into the future of the Jaguars.

The fourth, and most unexpected, quarterback to be taken in the first round was Florida State’s own Christian Ponder. Ponder was selected 12^th overall by the Vikings after predecessor Brett Favre retired(?) in the off season. When the Vikings selected Ponder, it was presumed that new head coach Leslie Frasier had taken Ponder on to be the starter. However, after the lockout ended and free agency began, the Vikings made a move for former Eagles and Redskins quarterback, Donovon McNabb. With McNabb onboard and a ready to win team, Ponder likely will not see much playing time this season. If McNabb falls to injury or poor performance like he did in Washington, Ponder may get a chance to be the starter, but his job will be to primarily hand the ball off to the Vikings all-world running back Adrian Peterson.

With this in mind, the most obvious choice for biggest impact among the four rookie first round quarterbacks is the Panthers Cam Newton. Newton has shown this preseason that he is a little raw, but also that his athletic ability is greater than that of Jimmy Clausen. Look for Newton to be named the starter for week 1, and to have the Panthers compete in several of their games. Among this years class, I see no Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez, don’t look for any of the four quarterbacks to lead their teams to the playoffs. However, I do believe that Newton will perform well for the Panthers, as they go through a rebuilding year under first year head coach Ron Rivera. His weapons on offense with a presumably healthy DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith, and slot receiver Armani Edwards give the Panthers offense a lot of speed and a lot of power. As for the other quarterbacks, look for Jake Locker to make a significant impact with the Titans later on in the season, when the playoff hopes are dashed and Hasselbeck is ultimately replaced. In the cases of Gabbert and Ponder, look for them to make their own marks in the 2012 season.