NFL: AFC Contender/Pretender

AFC: Contender/Pretender 

As we get to the last seven weeks of games, we’ve seen teams in the AFC look elite one week to horrible the next. Look at the Ravens, who after beating division rival Pittsburgh last Sunday lost to the Seahawks yesterday. Pittsburgh has gone from good to bad to great to good. The Jets lost three games in a row at the beginning of the season. Buffalo and Cincinnati came out of the gate looking like actual football teams. The Patriots look mortal. With such a logjam in the conference, it’s time to clear up the AFC playoff picture...its time to decide whose a contender, and whose a pretender. 

Baltimore Ravens (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Baltimore is one of the most confusing teams I’ve ever watched. In some games, such as against the Jets and Steelers, they look like the best team in the league. Then, when they play teams like Arizona and Seattle, they barely win or lose. That’s a good sign for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but the Ravens have too good of a defense to falter late in the year. I don’t know if it will be out of the division or wild card, but Baltimore should be a team that plays deep into the winter. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Buffalo Bills (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): It may be too soon, but you have to wonder if the Bills are re-thinking that $50 million extension they handed Ryan Fitzpatrick earlier this year. In the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick and the Bills have been held to poor performances against the Jets and Cowboys. Fitzpatrick completes a high percentage of his passes, but his arm is weak and he’s starting to make poor decisions with his throws. The Bills still have two games against the Patriots and Jets, along wit match ups with scrappy teams like Denver, San Diego, and Miami. They could be right back in the thick of things with victories over New England and New York, but I get the feeling that the slipper is coming off of this cinderella team. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Yesterday, for the first time all season, Andy Dalton looked like a rookie quarterback. Dalton threw two interceptions and struggled against the Pittsburgh defense. The Bengals got off to a hot start with he benefit of playing poor teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Over the next seven weeks, Dalton and the Bengals will have to play the Ravens (twice), the Steelers, and the Texans before meeting up with St. Louis and Arizona. I can see the Bengals getting to 9 wins, but it takes 10 to get into the playoffs from the AFC in this day and age. If they can steal a game from Pittsburgh or Baltimore, they might sneak in. I don’t see it. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Denver Broncos (4-5; tied for 2nd in AFC West): I’m going to get this out of the way right now, the Broncos are not as good as Cincinnati or Buffalo, but they might have a better chance at making the playoffs. Currently, Denver has the tie-breaker over Oakland and Kansas City. To me, it looks like no one really wants to win the division. The Chargers are playing like they never win, Oakland is as bipolar as any team, and Kansas City stinks. Denver, however, is a team with a great defense and a “quarterback” who can run it like no other. As history tells us, a strong defense and a good running game leads to victories. Somehow, someway, the Broncos keep winning. I don’t think they’re good, but they play in a division that can help them out. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Houston Texans (7-3; 1st place in the AFC South): It looks as though the Texans have already locked up the South, currently standing 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans. However, the Texans still have to play games against Atlanta and the Titans, so a late season collapse is not out of the question. For all the talk focused on the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers being the AFC elite, the texans have quietly put together a strong season. Should they stay the course and make the playoffs, they’ll be a scary team to face. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

New England Patriots (6-3; 1st place in the AFC East): For as vulnerable as the Patriots have looked this season, they seemed to have turned it around after defeating the Jets last night. Now in soul possession of first place in the East, don’t look for New England to lose any ground in the coming weeks. When all is said and done, the Patriots will more than likely enter the playoffs with a first round bye and a top seed out of the AFC.

Verdict: CONTENDER

New York Jets (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): The Jets had a chance to take first place in the East last night and squandered it. Corner man Donald Strickland got exposed by Rob Gronkowski all night. Now the Jets will have to compete with Buffalo, Cincinnati, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore for a wild card seed. They hold a tie breaker over Buffalo, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, and Bills in the next seven weeks. Knowledge says they can afford to lose two more games this season if they want to make the playoffs, but with that schedule it will be no easy feat. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Oakland Raiders (5-4; 1st place in the AFC West): I thought for sure that the Raiders would have fallen out of contention by now, considering Darren McFadden being injury-riddled and Carson Palmer being...well...Carson Palmer. However, the Raiders looked excellent Thursday night against the Chargers, with Palmer looking like he’s developing quite the chemistry with his receivers. With the Raiders in the division drivers seat, all they will have to do is hold off the Fighting Tebows of Denver to make the playoffs. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3; 1st place in the AFC North): If you were going to tell me that after 10 weeks the Steelers would have lost to Houston and the Ravens (twice) and still be in first place in the division, I would have called you crazy. For as weird as the Ravens have been this year, the Steelers have been weirder. Just like the Ravens, Pittsburgh can look dominant one week and porous the next. I think they have the experience and ability to make it into the playoffs out of the crowded North, but there is no telling who will win the division. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Tennessee Titans (5-4; 2nd place in the AFC South): Oh, what could have been for the Titans this year. With Peyton Manning out and the Colts playing awfully, the Titans had a legit shot to steal the division. Then, Kenny Britt was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Chris Johnson only just got his first 100-yard rushing day (and first touchdown) of the season yesterday. The Titans are only 2.5 games back of Houston, but it may be a little too much too late for Tennessee. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

PREDICTIONS:

AFC East- New England Patriots (1 seed)

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers (3 seed)

AFC South- Houston Texans (2 seed)

AFC West- Oakland Raiders (4 seed)

Wild Card- Baltimore Ravens (5 seed)

Wild Card- New York Jets (6 seed)

Wild Card Round- Pittsburgh over New York; Baltimore over Oakland

Divisional Round- Baltimore over New England; Pittsburgh over Houston

Championship Round- Pittsburgh over Baltimore 

NFL: AFC Changing of the Guard?

For the last decade, there have been three teams in the AFC that have been the perennial contenders in the playoffs and their divisions. The New England Patriots have had a stranglehold over the AFC East since 2001. Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts have won seven division titles in the last nine seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been battling it out with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, capturing the division five times on their way to two Super Bowl victories in the last decade. Out west, the division has been fairly shared, with the San Diego Chargers most recently being the dominant team of the four (Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City the others). 

While the Colts, Steelers, and Patriots have been the powerhouses of the AFC, they have always looked down at the “little brothers” in their respected divisions. The Patriots have dominated the New York Jets (more so than Miami and Buffalo) in the division ever since Mo Lewis knocked out Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Baltimore, while winning the Super Bowl in 2000, have always been second fiddle in the AFC North to the Steelers. Down south, the Houston Texans have yet to make the playoffs in their history, forever being overshadowed by Manning and the Colts. 

2011 has brought about a bit of a change in the conference. As we stand in the midst of week 10, the Texans, Ravens, and Jets are all in either sole possession or tied for first place in their divisions. The Colts, without Manning for the year, are steamrolling to the number one pick in April. Pittsburgh is still one of the best teams in the league, but two of their three losses have come at the hands of Baltimore. Could it be that the old days of the AFC dominance by the holy trinity is over? Let us take a division by division look, analyzing the new and old of each. 

In the AFC South, Houston has had the talent to make a playoff run for several years now. The final piece has seemed to be the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and the rejuvenated Texans secondary. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Ben Tate are successfully shouldering the load on offense while injured superstar Andre Johnson has sat out. It remains to be seen whether or not Houston is taking over the South. Without having to face a Manning-led Colts team, Houston is coasting to the division title. We’ve seen this year that the Colts are awful without Manning, so it could be that Houston is on the up-swing in the South, easily the most complete team among three rebuilding franchises in the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans. 

The AFC North is much different than the South. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have consistently been the two major players in the division in recent memory. However, it seemed to always end with the Steelers in first place and Baltimore having to settle for a wild card entrance to the playoffs. Now, we see Baltimore apparently getting the Pittsburgh monkey off of their backs. The Ravens offense may be younger than that of the Steelers, but it is questionable how much time Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have left in their careers for the Ravens defense. The Steelers have Troy Polamalu locked up for the rest of his career, along with a young superstar in Lamarr Woodley at linebacker. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger are all still in their twenties for the Steelers offense. I’m not ready to say that this season is a changing of the guard in the North, but all signs point to it being the Ravens year. In the next two or three seasons we could see momentum switch back to the slightly younger Steelers squad, or we could see the Ravens and Joe Flacco create their own monopoly on the division. Either way would not shock me. 

Which brings us to the AFC East. For years, Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck have ruled over the division like kings. Even in the Brady-less 2008 season, the Patriots came within a single game of capturing the division. The Bills appear to be on an up-swing of sorts, with young talent like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson leading the charge. However, I’ve always viewed this division as a two team race between the Jets and the Patriots. I have always said that no division lead is safe in the East as long as Brady is the starting quarterback for the Patriots, but this season the team has not looked as God-like as past years. They’ve currently dropped two games in a row and stand tied for first place with the Jets and Bills at 5-3. Comparing the two teams, the Jets and Patriots are both very young in spots and very old in others. On New England’s offense, Brady and the offensive line are starting to show their age. On defense, the Patriots have one of the youngest units in the league. The youth on D may explain why the Patriots have the 31st overall defense in football, but you have to figure that as the players mature the team will get better in coming years. In New York, Rex Ryan has young players on both offense and defense. Darrelle Revis and David Harris are just hitting their primes, while Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Mohammad Wilkerson and Kendrick Ellis are all young cornerstones for the defense. On the other hand, Bart Scott and Calvin Pace are both slow and old, while Plaxico Burress is attempting his comeback at 31. On offense, the Jets are still developing third year starter Mark Sanchez, supplying him with “youth” in Dustin Keller, Nick Mangold, D’brickashaw Ferguson, Shonn Greene, and Santonio Holmes. Both teams are “ready to win now” and built for the future. The race for the AFC East could be decided this Sunday night when these two teams square off on NBC. This division is the closest to call in terms of the changing of the guard. In New York I see youth and bravado, but with New England it’s impossible to look past the greatest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history and presume that they could ever fall off. 

One thing is definite, this season has seen the “little brothers” of the AFC make strong statements in their divisions. Whether or not this is a precursor for a shift in the conference landscape remains to be seen. My advice? Let’s not all worry about who is falling off and who is rising, let’s enjoy these division races for the next seven weeks before the playoffs start and all logic gets thrown out of the window.